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CLOSING COMMENTS 12-6-04
The stock market continued its upward momentum last week, assisted by falling oil prices and positive developments in the Semiconductor stocks, as technology led the charge higher. The NASDAQ rose 46 points, or 2.2% for the week, and is now at its highest level since July 2001 after closing at 2,147. The Russell rose 1.8% for the week, as small-cap stocks have once again outperformed the broader indexes this year. The Russell is now up 15.3% for the year. The S&P 500 rose 8 points, or 0.7%, and is now up 7.1% for the year after closing at 1191. The Dow rose 70 points, or 0.7%, but is barely "in the black" for the year with a 1.3% gain. Over the past four weeks, we have mentioned several times that the Semiconductor Sector (SOX Index) would likely be the catalyst for a rally. Since November 5th, the SOX is up 6.7%, including last week's 3.5% gain, which enabled the Index to break-through its 200-day simple moving average, which had served as resistance since April. Intel Corp (INTC) and chip equipment maker Novellus Systems (NVLS) both issued better-than-expected mid-quarter updates thus lifting shares of semiconductor companies higher on the theory that the inventory correction that the sector is currently undergoing will be short-lived. Plummeting crude prices also boosted the equity markets, as oil fell over $7 per barrel last week. These factors, and bullish seasonal and technical considerations, helped stocks overcome the mixed economic data, a disappointing Employment Report, weaker than anticipated retail sales and a declining dollar. Even though Friday's Employment Report, which showed just a 112,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, one could argue that an environment of moderate economic growth (3-4% GDP) is the ideal environment for stock market investors, as it will allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a more restrained pace. With the 10-year U.S. Treasury yielding 4.27%, so long as inflation remains at relatively low levels; the interest rate environment should be supportive of further gains in stocks. What can investors look for this week? There are very few earnings announcements, however, homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) will report results after the market closes on Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon, Dreamworks Animation (DWA) will deliver its first earnings report as a public company. There will be updates from a series of highly influential technology companies which may impact the tech sector. Texas Instruments (TXN) will provide a mid-quarter update on Tuesday after the market closes, as will drivemaker Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX). Chipmaker Altera (ALTR) will update investors on mid-quarter expectations on Wednesday afternoon. Maxtor Corporation (MXO) provides a mid-quarter update the same day. Cisco Systems (CSCO) meets with analysts on Monday. Intel Corporation (INTC) hosts analysts on Tuesday. CitiGroup (C) holds an Analyst Day on Wednesday. Merck (MRK) will provide financial guidance the same day. Many investors will be paying close attention to a packed conference schedule, as many influential companies present this week, which could impact trading. Credit Suisse holds a four-day Media Conference beginning Monday in New York. Many of the electronic gaming companies will present at the event, as they will at a similar event hosted by UBS in New York on Monday. Smith Barney hosts a Chemical Conference in New York on Tuesday. First Albany holds a two-day Growth Conference in New York beginning Tuesday. Lehman Brothers holds a three-day Technology and Telecom Conference beginning Wednesday in San Francisco. The key event on the economic calendar will be the release of the November Producer Price Index on Friday, which is expected to show that inflation has remained benign. Also, that day, the December Michigan Sentiment Index will be released. Consumer Credit for October will be announced on Tuesday. Weekly Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday, along with October's Wholesale Inventories. Stay Tuned!
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