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CLOSING COMMENTS 1-20-07
Weekly Market Commentary: Last Friday's University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading jumped from an expected 92 to 98, its highest level in three years showing that the U.S. economic is still very resilient. This did very little, however, to rally equity markets which finished the week with very little change from last week. The Dow Jones Industrials (12,556.08, -9.46) and S&P 500 (1,430.50, -0.22) spent the week drifting, while the Nasdaq Composite (2,451.31, -51.51, -0.22%) and Russell 2000 (785.16, -9.10, -0.11%) gave up only a bit more ground than their larger cap brethren. It only took house Democrats 15 days to enact the first net tax increase since 1993, with the passage of Energy Bill HR6, which didn't receive much play in the major media. Perhaps the reason stocks, and most notably tech stocks, turned in such a lackluster performance. The good news appears to be that since last July's low, growth stocks have been outperforming value stocks. On Monday, the Conference Board reports the December leading economic indicators index forecasted to be up 0.2% following November's 0.1% reading, and opening arguments will be heard in the Lewis "Scooter" Libby case surrounding his "outing" of Valerie Plame as a CIA operative. On Tuesday, the nation will look forward to President Bush's annual State of the Union message. Wednesday, the Energy Department issues its weekly report on crude oil inventories, the last of which showed a big up tick in supplies that sent prices to a 20-month low. Also, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports on its weekly survey of loan origination applications. That's followed up by Thursday's December existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors expected to show continued weakness in that sector. Earnings season continues, with a host of companies due to report throughout the week. Thus far, according to Zack's Investment Research, the ratio of firms beating fourth quarter estimates was a decent 2.2 to 1. However, tech watchers are urged to note that consensus estimate revisions for 2007 have thus far been "noticeably weak" with three reductions for every upward revision. Stay tuned!
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