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CLOSING COMMENTS 9-25-06
The Last Week in Review: As most experts expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% last week for a second straight month. The accompanying policy statement brought no surprises, as investors refocused on Q2 earnings strength and plummeting oil prices, resulting in a broad-based rally. The tech-heavy NASDAQ greatly outpaced blue chips when software giant Oracle Corp (ORCL) beat all expectations on Tuesday after the close and exceeded analysts estimates on every metric. Oracle's upside surprise kick-started a big rally on Wednesday which saw technology stocks soar back into positive territory for the year. Last week also saw the fears of rising inflation take a backseat to concerns about a slowing economy, after the Philly Fed report on manufacturing activity in the region was negative, much to the surprise of investors. As a result, the Dow dropped 52 points, decreasing its year to date gain to 7.4%, while the NASDAQ was down 16 points, lowering its year to date gain to 0.6%. The Russell 2000 shed 10 points and reduced its year to date gain to 6.7%, while the S&P 500 was down 5 points, decreasing its year to date gain to 6.7%. Reflecting the fact that inflation remains under control, the Federal Reserve's announcement to leave interest rates unchanged generated little surprise and allowed investors to continue their debate on whether Bernanke & Company were affecting a soft landing. Certainly, the economy received a boost from another decline in the price of crude oil, helping to offset warnings from Yahoo! (YHOO) and Boston Scientific (BSX), among the few high-profile companies to warn of an earnings shortfall, although activity in that area should increase as the third quarter comes to an end this week. The Week Ahead This week will be a slow one for earnings announcements with retail drug store Walgreen Co. (WAG) reporting their results on Monday. Earnings from home builder Lennar (LEN) will be released on Tuesday which should give investors an idea of the current strength or weakness in the housing sector. Jabil Circuit (JBL) reports their earnings also on Tuesday. Family Dollar Stores (FDO) releases results on Thursday, along with Accenture Ltd. (ACN). The conference schedule is fairly active this week, beginning with UBS, who is hosting a four-day Global Life Sciences Conference beginning Monday in New York. JP Morgan will host their Asia Pacific Conference in New York, also on Monday. Merrill Lynch hosts a Global Power and Gas conference in New York on Tuesday. Along with the four-day Prudential Equity Group Electrical Equipment & Consumer Electrical conference in Vermont and Thomas Weisel Partners Consumer Conference in New York. Economic news this week will focus on the current status of the economy and the housing market. The August Existing Home Sales will be released on Monday. The weak housing sector is expecting another report confirming the slowdown in demand for housing. The September Consumer Confidence report will be announced on Tuesday. On Wednesday the August Durable Orders will be reported followed by the August New Homes Sales Report and the weekly Crude Inventories. The Q2 GDP & Chain Deflator report will be announced on Thursday along with the weekly initial unemployment claims. August Personal Spending and Personal Income reports will be released Friday along with the Chicago PMI and the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment. In summary, investors should focused on the August Existing Home Sales report on Monday and the August Durable Orders release on Wednesday. Stay tuned! | |||||